I just read an article by a long-time columnist, Ken Harney, and he says that while it's easy to look at all the negataive economic news in the headlines and say that there's no sign that 2009 is going to be much better than 2008, there's a different perspective to consider.
A vereran financial analyst, Richard Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann, an investment banking company said that he sees a positive dynamic taking shape in the current cycle, and I must agree with him.
The government has intervened aggressively in the markets to push interest rates down -- most notably in the home mortgage sector. Though it takes awhile for low-cost money to begin having its effect, Bove said he expects "housing prices to stabilize and/or rise (in 2009) after a likely boom in mortgage refinancings as rates fall and loan applications increase."
While I disagree with him about housing prices rising in many areas of the country just yet, I would expect that they WILL stabilize, and we'll start to move some of the inventory that we currently have, which is about three times the inventory of homes that we had on the market in New Bern in the early and mid 2000's.
Coupled with the economic Stimulous package that's being put together on Capital Hill -- there's a good chance we're going to see a gradual transformation of the downward cycle into a slow rebound over the coming several quarters.
I met a mortgage banker today in one of the local stores. He said that mortgage applications are off the charts right now, with about 80% in refinances, and still another 20% in new loans, where people are taking advantage of the affordable prices and the low interest rates.
Rates continue to hover at 50-year lows - five percent and even four and three quarters percent for 30-year mortgages, and still lower for 15 and 20 year mortgage terms. Plus, we're all paying a lot less at the gas pump, and sharply discounted prices for retail goods and autos.
And guess what else Ken Harney says? Americans are actually SAVING again, -- the national savings rate took a nearly three percent jump last month. That might sound small, but it's hugely important if it is the start of a trend.
There are also some signs that housing prices are stabilizing in some parts of the country. The latest monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency index found home prices UP by six-tenths of a percent in the Mountain states and UP by two tenths of a percent in New England.
You can ridicule small regional gains as statistically irrelevant, but here's an economic proposal to you for the New Year: Keep your eyes open for the small positive signs that are accumulating out there … because all downcycles tail off and come to an end.
The smartest players in real estate -- consumers and the industry - will make the most of the positives -- low-cost money, low prices, stabilizing local markets -- and thrive in the new year!
Dianne Dunn
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